You may have heard that people are betting on video game simulations.
At first, I thought, but how is this regulated – thinking that they setting up an Xbox or PS4 at the sportsbook offices and running the sims. But the simulations are actually run by a 3rd party called Prime Time Action Sports. So, you don’t need to worry about the outcomes getting rigged by the books.
Saturday, Nov. 14 Madden Slate
The Jacksonville Jaguars face the Green Bay Packers this weekend in real life. But in bettable Madden sims, the Jags are facing the Denver Broncos at 4 PM ET on Empower Field at Mile High.
Two days ago, the digital Broncos beat the ones-and-zeros Minnesota Vikings, 20-17 inside of the little plastic box. Perhaps that’s why this game is lined out by Bookmaker, a top-rated sportsbook with welcome bonuses, to bea pick’em, at -110 each. The total score is set at OVER/UNDER 42.5 points. [AF1]
The cool thing about the simulated games is they can simulate NFL games every single day. Often times, at some point in the week, we see a couple of sims of matches that are scheduled in real life. Another interesting thing is to cross-reference simulation play with real-life play. For example, the Jaguars are the second-worst team in the league according to the power ratings, yet they beat the Steelers by a field goal in the November 10th simulation – a game the Jags should lose by double-digits.
So let’s start by breaking this one down with real-life stats.
The Jaguars are bad. They should lose to an average team, by roughly 8.8 points if playing on a neutral field – for example, the 2020 New England Patriots. The Broncos are also bad. They should lose in a neutral setting by 2.8 points (or a field goal) to an average team, like the Pats. So, if we look at those numbers, the Broncos should beat the Jags by 6. So, we should see a point spread between 5.5 and 6.5 points. But Bookmaker has the game lined out at 0. So, is there value to be had based on the current live rosters.
Jacksonville is currently putting up 22.4 points per game. But defensively, they allow 30.9. Meanwhile, the Broncos score 21.75 per game but allow a field goal less, with 27.1 allowed by the defense.
So, the Jags are roughly a point better on offense, but three points worse on defense, equalling two. When we add three points for home-field advantage, we are back to five points, which is close to the point-spread implied by the power ratings.
So, this should be a play for the Denver Broncos, especially since it’s a pick’em.
But I am more interested in the fact that the Jags face the Steelers on Sunday, a game which they won in simulation a few days ago.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Jacksonville Jags | Week 11
In the simulation, the Jaguars came out strong at Heinze Field and dropped 10 points on the Pittsburgh D in the first quarter. The Jacksonville defense held the Steelers scoreless through the 1st and to just a field goal in the second, entering halftime with a 13-3 lead. But the Steelers dropped 10 on the Jags (who scored 7) in the 3rd quarter and an additional TD in the fourth, holding the Jags to a game-winning field goal.
The Jags put up 272 passing yards and 71 rushing yards, plus 116 KR yards and 7 PR yards for a 466 yard total. The Steelers only rushed for 60, passed for 289, and ended with a total of 497 counting return yards.
But what about real life?
The Steelers offense currently averages 29.4 yards per game, 232 from passing the ball, and 109 rushing. Their near 30-points per game is good enough for 5th in the league. Meanwhile, the Jacksonville Jaguars are a pitiful 26th in scoring offense, though they do pass the ball decently, good enough for exactly middle of the road, No. 16 in the league.
The big difference here is how well the defenses play. Pittsburgh has an Iron Curtain D, that allows just 20.13 per game (Top-5 in the league). Their passing defense is 6th, holding QBs and receivers to 214 per game. And their 102 rushing yards allowed ranks No. 9. On the flip side, the Jags allow are ranked No. 31 in score allowed with 30.88 (or 31 points per game) and rank 28th in both passing and run defenses. And perhaps worst of all, is they allow massive chunks at a time, ranking No. 31 in yards per play allowed.
The opening line at Bookmaker has the Steelers as 9.5-point favorites on the road. That said, I line this game out at -13 for the Steelers and will handicap it further for betting purposes. So, there is no dimension at the moment where I see the Jags winning in Pittsburg like they did in the simulation. Now that they are playing the Steelers in Florida, they need to win by six points to consider that simulation foretelling the future.
this is a tech magazine site, why would we use an exact match link like this guys? this needs fixing for sure. [AF1]
